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Pinch or Ctrl+scroll to zoom · drag or use the slider to pan · hover or tap a candle for the breakdown
Usage trend
Hit rates
over
Type in a line from any sportsbook. The model gives its chance of the over, and if you add the prices it shows what the book's price implies so you can compare. Research only. Nothing here is a betting recommendation.
Fantasy points each defense gave up per game to each position over its last 16 games (). Green = gives up more than average, a good matchup for the offense. Red = stingy. Tap a column to sort.
Last 10 games (pressure: last 16). Pace = offensive plays per game. Pass rate over expected = how much more a team throws than the situation calls for. Pressure = (sacks + QB hits) ÷ dropbacks, for the offense allowing it and the defense creating it. Green = better for fantasy points. Tap a column to sort.
Each candle is a team's projected points for one game (floor to ceiling, likely box, median line). The dot is what they actually scored. Green = beat the projection.
Not modeled yet: injuries (shown as badges, not adjusted), weather, depth-chart moves.
For fantasy players and bettors alike. GridTicker shows every NFL player's (and team's) week-by-week range: the bad-day floor, the good-day ceiling, and the likely middle. Past games show where he actually landed. Upcoming games show what to expect.
It's built for start/sit calls, DFS lineups, player props, spreads and totals. Everything runs on free public NFL data, and the model is graded in public on the Report card tab, misses included.
Each game is one candle, like one trading day on a stock chart.
A tall candle = a boom-or-bust player. A short candle = a steady one. Hover or tap any candle for the full breakdown and the reason behind the number.
Search anyone. You get the candle chart for 2025–26 and next game's projection, including the betting line and touchdown chance. Below that: usage trends (snap %, target share, red-zone looks), hit rates ("over 70 yards in 6 of his last 10"), how he does when a teammate sits, and how well the model has read him in the past. Tap Compare to put two players on one chart, and ☆ Watch to pin players to your watchlist.
Every player's projection for the upcoming week in one table. Sort by median, ceiling, safe floor, "boom" (biggest upside) or touchdown chance. Filter by position or team. Players listed OUT are hidden by default.
Type in a sportsbook line, like "receiving yards over 64.5", and you get the model's chance of the over. Add the book's prices (like −115) to see what the book thinks the chance is, and the gap between the two. Works for receptions, receiving, rushing and passing yards, rush + rec yards, anytime touchdown and fantasy points.
How many fantasy points each defense gives up to QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs. Green = generous (good matchup), red = stingy. Tap a column to sort.
This week's DraftKings spreads, totals and moneylines, checked every hour, with where each line opened and where it is now. Each game also shows our number: a stats-only score projection built without looking at the line, with leans when it disagrees with Vegas by 3+ points, and win chances vs the market. Below that, team charts show every team's projected vs actual points as candles. The Report card grades our number against the spread, honestly.
How accurate this actually is, graded on real games. Nothing is hidden.
Every past candle was projected before that game, using only earlier games. It's graded on 2022–2026 games the model never trained on:
An honest range should catch about 80% of real scores between floor and ceiling and 50% inside the box, and it does. The typical miss on the median is about 5 PPR points, because football is noisy. Treat the range as the answer, not the single number.
Each player starts from his recent form, weighted toward the last few games. The model then looks at how much he's getting the ball (targets, carries, snaps) and at the betting line: a team projected to score 28 is a better spot than one projected for 17. The range comes from how far real results have landed from projections across more than 10 years of NFL games. The data is free and public (nflverse for stats and schedules, ESPN for DraftKings lines). Live scores refresh every minute during games, lines every hour, and official stats every morning after games.